2024 Presidential Election Forecast: Biden and Trump Lead the Race
Key Points
- WEB's polling averages show Biden and Trump as the frontrunners in the 2024 presidential race.
- These averages consider data from various polls, including national and battleground state polls.
- 270 electoral votes are needed to win the 2024 presidential election.
WEB's Presidential Election Forecast
WEB's 2024 presidential election forecast model analyzes data from quantitative and qualitative forecasters to predict the candidates' chances of winning. The model currently shows:- Democrat Joe Biden has a 53% chance of winning.
- Republican Donald Trump has a 47% chance of winning.
Battleground State Polls
Battleground states are those where the outcome is likely to be close, making them crucial to winning the election.WEB's polling averages in key battleground states show:
- In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by a narrow 1-point margin.
- In Florida, Trump has a 2-point advantage.
- In Michigan, Biden holds a 3-point lead.
National Polls
National polls provide a broader view of the race.
WEB's national polling average shows:- Biden leads Trump by 4 points.
- This lead is within the margin of error.
Methodology
WEB's polling averages are based on a variety of factors, including:
- Poll recency
- Sample size
- Methodology used by the pollster
Electoral College
To win the 2024 presidential election, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes.
The electoral college allocates votes to each state based on its population. The number of votes varies depending on the state's size.The candidate with the most electoral votes wins the presidency, even if they do not win the popular vote.
Interactive Map
WEB's interactive map allows users to create their own 2024 election forecasts by assigning electoral votes to each state.This tool allows users to explore different scenarios and see how they impact the overall outcome of the election.
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